预报风强度对火箭最大气动载荷精度影响及建模分析

针对不同预报风强度的精度以及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度的研究文献极少。以某地区实况风为基准,分别对不同预报风强度的精度以及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度特征进行了分析,并利用多元线性回归方法建立了订正模型,结果表明在预报日数第1～11天,预报风强度越大,预报风精度及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度越高;利用多元线性回归方法可提高最大气动载荷预报值精度,且预报风强度越小,最大气动载荷预报精度提高越明显。这些发现在火箭发射前的飞行保障及安全决策方面具有参考价值。     

增强科技素养，提高打赢能力

增强高级指挥员的科技认知力、创新力、运用力是科技强军的必然要求。本文从战争演变、融合发展、应对威胁切入,对高级指挥员如何提升科技认知力层次、增强科技创新力效能、提高科技运用力水平谈了几点初步思考。     

箭(弹)级间螺栓法兰连接结构冲击失效实验与数值仿真

基于火箭(导弹)级间螺栓法兰连接结构,简化设计并制作了一组原理性实验件,利用ABAQUS软件建立有限元模型,设计并进行了多次落锤冲击失效实验,其中包括轴向和横向两种工况,考虑了螺栓均布与非均布、螺栓直径和螺栓-栓孔间隙等不同结构特点。实验过程中采集了螺栓力时程响应数据、柱段关键点应变时程响应数据、锤头冲击力和冲击速度及连接界面开缝位移等多组数据。根据实验效果和实测数据,分析了连接结构冲击失效机理,并对比验证发现有限元模型数值模拟效果和精度与实验结果吻合较好。研究结论可为箭(弹)级间连接结构抗冲击设计提供参考。     

一种基于HLA分布式仿真系统的动态负载平衡算法

基于兴趣域的"快递式"动态负载平衡算法从HLA/RTI提供的服务出发,当节点成为重载节点时,将节点部分负载转移到兴趣域内的轻载节点上,同时采用两次"握手"方式解决了负载迁移过程中出现的问题.通过使用两个评价参数--CPU占有率和内存使用率进行实验证明,负载平衡前后重载节点的CPU利用率和内存使用率有明显差别,结果表明该方法能有效地平衡系统各节点之间的负载,保证系统的实时性,提高系统的服务质量.     

军民融合产业内涵及范畴

发展军民融合产业是各级政府落实军民融合发展国家战略的重要抓手之一。针对军民融合产业界定不清等问题,从理论研究和实践工作层面梳理既有观点及演变趋势,形成对军民融合产业的客观认识。在此基础上,剖析军民融合产业的属性特征,从指导实践工作角度出发提出三种界定军民融合产业范畴及相关统计工作的合理化思路,并提出建立两级联动工作机制、开展国家工业基础中国防科研生产能力普查工作、试点开展军民融合产业分类标准及指标体系建设工作、加强军民融合产业统计数据质量监测等政策建议。     

岩土崩塌冲击作用下埋地管道应力与变形分析

基于散体极限平衡条件,利用马斯顿提出的沟内埋管垂直土压力计算模型,对存在冲击荷载情况的埋地管道受力进行分析,同时根据弹性半空间理论对落石冲击荷载情况下管道轴向附加荷载分布情况进行了计算分析。在利用传统的应力设计进行分析校核的同时,应用竖向变形量设计理念,研究了落石垂直冲击管道正上方时管道变形情况,以此来判断管道失效与否,为地质崩塌灾害易发区埋地管道的铺设方式提供理论和实践依据。     

一类飞行器载荷设计的三分段方法研究与应用

为有效解决传统载荷设计方法中存在的诸多不足，提出一种适用于一类飞行器载荷设计的三分段法，即分段刚度、分段质量和分段气动。该方法能够很好地逼近飞行器的真实质量分布和气动载荷分布。针对简化飞行器，分别利用三分段法、理论计算法和质量分站法计算其模态参数和截面载荷。结果表明，三分段法和理论计算法在模型参数、计算原理上是一致的，基本可以认为是一种方法，因而它们的模态参数和截面载荷完全吻合；质量分站法所得左、右截面载荷不一致，且相差很大，还不符合真实载荷情况。总之，采用三分段法能够得到较为真实、合理的飞行器截面载荷分布，且工程应用简便,方法合理、可信，同时还可以在很大程度上降低飞行器载荷设计和结构设计的难度。     

A practical organizational efficiency measure

There is often a call in any organization to make the system ‘more efficient’. This document describes a novel framework for measuring organizational efficiency at the microeconomic level. We show how this framework can be used to monitor an organization using data typically available in extant performance management frameworks. This is most useful in large organizations with eclectic outputs where resources may be too constrained to perform industry-level analyses, such as data envelope analysis, to infer efficiency. This method helps illuminate how the factors of an organization’s internal practices can affect its efficient use of resources.     

Capacity investment decisions under risk aversion

This article studies the optimal capacity investment problem for a risk‐averse decision maker. The capacity can be either purchased or salvaged, whereas both involve a fixed cost and a proportional cost/revenue. We incorporate risk preference and use a consumption model to capture the decision maker's risk sensitivity in a multiperiod capacity investment model. We show that, in each period, capacity and consumption decisions can be separately determined. In addition, we characterize the structure of the optimal capacity strategy. When the parameters are stationary, we present certain conditions under which the optimal capacity strategy could be easily characterized by a static two‐sided (s, S) policy, whereby, the capacity is determined only at the beginning of period one, and held constant during the entire planning horizon. It is purchased up to B when the initial capacity is below b, salvaged down to Σ when it is above σ, and remains constant otherwise. Numerical tests are presented to investigate the impact of demand volatility on the optimal capacity strategy. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 218–235, 2016     

Many‐server loss models with non‐poisson time‐varying arrivals

This article proposes an approximation for the blocking probability in a many‐server loss model with a non‐Poisson time‐varying arrival process and flexible staffing (number of servers) and shows that it can be used to set staffing levels to stabilize the time‐varying blocking probability at a target level. Because the blocking probabilities necessarily change dramatically after each staffing change, we randomize the time of each staffing change about the planned time. We apply simulation to show that (i) the blocking probabilities cannot be stabilized without some form of randomization, (ii) the new staffing algorithm with randomiation can stabilize blocking probabilities at target levels and (iii) the required staffing can be quite different when the Poisson assumption is dropped. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 177–202, 2017